HL Deb 26 July 1993 vol 548 cc91-2WA
Earl Russell

asked Her Majesty's Government:

How the projections of future Government spending in paragraph 3.17 of The Growth of Social Security would be affected if unemployment were to fall by 66 per cent.

Lord Henley

Information presented in paragraph 3.17 ofThe Growth of Social Security gives projections of social security expenditure based on a number of assumptions. This framework of information can be used to draw indicative conclusions about the consequences of other, similar, levels of unemployment. The information in paragraph 3.17 shows that a fall of about one quarter in the unemployment assumption in 1999–2000 is likely to result in a drop of around one twelfth in the share of GDP taken by social security expenditure: it would fall to 12.4 per cent. Using the ratio between the change in unemployment levels and the change in share in GDP it is possible to estimate that a drop in unemployment of two thirds is likely to cause a drop of around one fifth in the share of GDP taken by social security expenditure: down to roughly 11 per cent.

Baroness Hollis of Heigham

asked her Majesty's Government:

What would he the full cost to Social Security (including housing and all other relevant benefits) of the following differing levels of unemployment, at 1992–figures 2 million, 2.25, 2.50, 2.75, 3 million, 3.25, 3.50, 3.75, 4 million.

Lord Henley

For the current year information on the effect on expenditure of variations in the numbers of unemployed people is shown in Figure 22 of the 1993 Social Security department report.

Information about differing levels of unemployment is presented in table 8 of The Growth of Social Security recently published by HMSO. Copies of both these documents are in the Library. For further information, I refer the noble Baroness to my reply to the Earl Russel today.