§ Lord AVEBURYasked Her Majesty's Government:
Whether they will explain the basis of the claim by the Minister of Transport in his Interim Road Policy statement that,
the forecasts currently used in assessing the need for schemes are based on a range of long-term assumptions which allow not only for the recent increase in petrol prices, returning them in real terms to the peak levels of 1975–76, but also for further increases in real petrol prices in future",and whether they are aware that the latest car ownership forecasts model does not include any variable in petrol price.
§ Lord BELLWINThe department's car ownership forecasts are made by combining the results of two forecasting models, one of which takes account of changes in petrol price. The traffic forecasts used in assessing road schemes depend, however, not only on the number of cars but also on the extent to which each is used. Petrol prices are a factor in the forecasts of vehicle use. The assumptions on which the forecasts are based allow for increases of between 54 per cent. and 200 per cent. in real terms between the middle of 1976 and the end of the century. Petrol prices fell in real terms between the 809WA end of 1975 and the beginning of this year, but recent increases have brought them in line with the low price assumption.