HL Deb 31 January 1985 vol 459 cc739-41

3.7 p.m.

Lord Jenkins of Putney

My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper.

The Question was as follows:

To ask Her Majesty's Government whether they agree that according to their own opinion the type of nuclear attack envisaged in their exercises would kill 34 per cent. of the population immediately as against 12 per cent. if a policy of dispersal and evacuation were adopted, and whether the rejection of the latter policy is based on the humanitarian view that it is better for people to die quickly than to be preserved for more lingering death.

The Minister of State, Home Office (Lord Elton)

My Lords, the number of people who would be killed in a nuclear attack cannot be predicted. We keep all options for protecting the population under review, including evacuation. But no part of our country could be considered completely safe from both the direct effects of nuclear weapons and their resultant fallout.

Lord Jenkins of Putney

My Lords, is the noble Lord aware that the figures included in the Question are based upon information which was published in the New Statesman towards the end of last year—

Noble Lords

Oh!

Lord Jenkins of Putney

—and is he further aware that, in spite of the mirth of his noble friends, those figures were based upon an estimate produced by a Home Office computer? In those circumstances, may I send the noble Lord the article and invite him to have another look at it, and perhaps give me a different answer?

Lord Elton

My Lords, yes, I am aware of the noble Lord's source. I am also aware of the source of the noble Lord's source, which was a paper produced to illustrate Home Office methodology and not Home Office policy.

The Earl of Lauderdale

My Lords, would my noble friend not agree that relying on computer products is apt to ignore the principle, "Garbage in, garbage out"?

Lord Elton

My Lords, we do not have much garbage in the Home Office.

Viscount Hanworth

My Lords, would the noble Lord agree that there are a number of possible scenarios and that it is very difficult to adopt any one of them? They might range, for example, from an all-out nuclear attack to an attack by one nuclear weapon or a conventional attack. Does he agree that it is a mistake to concentrate on one scenario only?

Lord Elton

My Lords, I absolutely agree that if there was a nuclear war the choice of targets in this country would not rest with us.

Lord Renton

My Lords, is my noble friend aware that there are far more genuine reasons in favour of a policy of dispersal and evacuation than those implied in the Question of the noble Lord, Lord Jenkins of Putney?

Lord Elton

My Lords, with the knowledge of the earlier observations by the noble Lord, Lord Jenkins of Putney, I would say that there are more reasonable assumptions and that one should look at the experience of Hiroshima, which showed conclusively that people can survive nuclear attack, that survival is eased by medical and other precautions and would be very much enhanced by warning.

Lord Shinwell

My Lords, is it not possible that the Russians, with their satellites, have a great deal of information, as a result of study, investigation and analysis of the problem, about how to protect their civilian population, apart from those actually engaged in battle? If they have such information, is it available to Her Majesty's Government; and if not, why not?

Lord Elton

My Lords, I may have misheard the noble Lord. I thought he was asking whether information gathered by Russian satellites was available to Her Majesty's Government. I am not aware of any such information being available.

Lord Shinwell

My Lords, is not that rather surprising? Should not we try to obtain all possible information? A great deal has been said about espionage. Some people have been undergoing prosecution because of the allegations made against them, which have been proved. In the circumstances, are we to understand that using our intelligence staff, and possibly using espionage, would not enable us to gain some information from which we could gain experience?

Lord Elton

My Lords, the House will forgive me for having tempted the noble Lord rather further from the Order Paper than I can possibly follow him.

Lord Avebury

My Lords, does the Minister agree with the opinion which has been expressed by many scientists that nuclear explosions could result in large quantities of particulate matter being carried above the tropopause, where they would remain for several years, blocking out the sun's infra-red radiation and thus causing a catastrophic fall in the temperature at the surface? If he does agree with that, can he say at what level of nuclear explosions this would result in the whole of the British Isles being covered with an ice sheet?

Lord Elton

My Lords, there is a theory that nuclear weapons would result in a lot of dust which would make the surface of the world colder, which is what I take it the noble Lord was referring to. The International Council of Scientific Unions is studying the subject and is expected to publish its findings later this year. The Government will follow closely that and other developments.

Lord Graham of Edmonton

My Lords, in view of the importance that has been attached to dispersal and evacuation, why was there no reference to either of these important elements in the 1983 review of Civil Defence proposals?

Lord Elton

My Lords, I am not certain if I heard the noble Lord correctly. But my answer on the general subject of dispersal remains as it was in the substantive Answer: that it is by no means clear that any part of the United Kingdom would be safe in such an attack.

Lord Molloy

My Lords, the Minister stated that we might take some guidance from what happened at Hiroshima, but I should like to ask him whether he is aware that, in the view of renowned American and British scientists, to do such a thing would be foolhardy? The massive power of thermonuclear bombing now makes Hiroshima seem, in the words of one eminent scientist, like a squib. Therefore, is it not dangerous for us to think that in the peradventure of there being a thermonuclear war we might gain from the fact that some people escaped at Hiroshima?

Lord Elton

My Lords, it is only dangerous to argue from the small to the larger if one ignores the difference of scale.

Lord Kennet

My Lords, are the Government aware that the Soviet Government are doing about 10 times as much as we are, relatively, about Civil Defence, and that in fact they have done so much that they have recently had to begin to soothe their own public opinion and inform the people that it does not mean that war is imminent?

Lord Elton

My Lords, perhaps they will soothe the noble Lord, Lord Jenkins of Putney, as well.

Lord Jenkins of Putney

My Lords, they have done so already to the extent that, having been to Leningrad, I found that they had made—

Noble Lords

Question!

Lord Jenkins of Putney

My Lords, is the noble Lord aware that, having been to Leningrad, I found that they had made no preparations whatsoever for Civil Defence, taking the view that no Civil Defence was possible in the nuclear age? Would it not be better if the noble Lord were to take a similar view?

Lord Elton

My Lords, I dare say they did not regard the noble Lord as a threat.